Scotch at Dan Murphy's, priced every Thursday. Lagavulin 16 and the ten bottles that define it.
Dan Murphy's · week of 2026-11-05
vintage 2026-11-05.1
operator tier
nightly build · origin/main@940a5be

From the Glen Grant desk · Thread · Divergence take · 2026-10-08

Two reads agree the Glen Grant 10 is cheap right now

mergedflaggedmay_publish truequality passsite_publish trueprices: 2 price claim(s) verified live

1/For once, two separate reads agree on the Glen Grant 10: it is cheap. At $81 it sits under the floor its own cohort would set, and at the very bottom of its own price history. When the value model and the bottle's own record line up, that is rarer than either read on its own.

2/The surprise is its nearest companion. The engine's single closest match to the Glen Grant, ranked 1st, is Bushmills 10, an Irish single malt rather than a Speyside, at almost the same money, $79. A Scotch and an Irish ten-year-old read as neighbours.

3/Careful what that means. Profile geometry, not two glasses poured side by side. And the Bushmills is no bargain today: it sits mid-way through its own history and over its cohort ceiling, the two reads pulling opposite ways. The cheap one here is the Glen Grant.

4/So at much the same money, the Speyside Glen Grant 10 under its floor, or the Irish Bushmills 10 over its ceiling? Both Dan Murphy's today. If your local shelf tells a different story, tell me the number.

Sources

  • generate_cycle.py cycle payload, artefact 2026-10-08-cycle/similarity-surprise/the-glen-grant-10-year-old-single-malt-scotch-whisky-700ml-b-4f1f87, grounded on vintage 2026-10-08.1, window as-of 2026-10-08.
  • The Glen Grant 10 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL: shelf ticket $81 (claim / grounding.ref.price). Own-history percentile 0.0, direction cheap (grounding.ref.own_history_percentile, own_history_direction); band position "under floor", cohort direction cheap (grounding.ref.band_position, cohort_direction); both axes agree (grounding.ref.agrees true). Scotland (Speyside), Single Malt.
  • Bushmills 10 Year Old Single Malt Irish Whiskey 700mL: shelf ticket $79 (claim / grounding.cand.price). Own-history percentile 63.6, direction mid; band position "over ceiling", cohort direction expensive; the two axes disagree (grounding.cand.agrees false). Ireland, Single Malt.
  • Pairing: CE rank 1 (grounding.ce_rank); same_country false, same_style true; price ratio 1.09 ($81 / $79), price_tier_divergent false (grounding.price_ratio, price_tier_divergent). The divergence that makes it a "surprise" is country, not price.

Omissions

  • Light form only: no CE 360° band numbers, no cross-read CEARP, no Welch t-test. Only the band-position labels ("under floor", "over ceiling") and the own-history percentiles are quoted, not the underlying band figures. Ruled out here, not implied.
  • Only the Glen Grant 10's two axes agree; the Bushmills 10's disagree, and the post says so rather than presenting both as cheap. The value line rests on the one bottle whose reads line up.
  • The pair diverges on country, not price tier (the two tickets are within 10% of each other), so this is a milder "would never shelve together" than a cross-style or cross-price-tier pair; the post names the country split as the surprise.
  • No tasting words are asserted for either bottle; the closeness is the engine's profile read, not a sensory match.

Notes for reviewer

  • Flagged: the divergence axis here is country alone (Scotch vs Irish), with near-equal prices and the same style (single malt). That is a gentler surprise than the format's archetype (a cross-style or cross-price-tier pair). The piece leads on the genuine signal — the Glen Grant 10 cheap on two independent measures — and uses the Irish neighbour as the hook. Confirm it reads as a real cross-country pairing and not as two near-identical bottles.
  • CE rank 1 is the strongest possible closeness rank, so the "nearest companion" claim is honest; the hook names the rank per the format's caution.

Format note

Similarity surprise, automated light form. Two shelf tickets, each bottle's band-position label (not the band numbers) and own-history percentile, and the pair's CE rank; no CE 360° band numbers, no cross-read CEARP, no Welch t-test (light form, and no dossier was read). Divergence axis is country (Scotland vs Ireland), not price tier — the two prices are near-equal ($81 vs $79, ratio 1.09), so price_tier_divergent is false. The agreeing item is The Glen Grant 10: its cohort axis (under its CE 360° floor) and its own-history axis (0th percentile) both read cheap. Bushmills 10's axes disagree (mid own-history, over its cohort ceiling), so it is not presented as the value anchor.

Frontmatter as merged
{
 "date": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
 "title": "Two reads agree the Glen Grant 10 is cheap right now",
 "angle": "similarity-surprise",
 "position": "n/a",
 "status": "draft",
 "derives_from": "none — standalone; the automated cycle grounds this on the vintage's dyadic pool and the week's harvest, no long-form article backs it",
 "grounded_on": "2026-10-08.1",
 "may_publish": true,
 "review_priority": "flagged",
 "artefact_id": "2026-10-08-cycle/similarity-surprise/the-glen-grant-10-year-old-single-malt-scotch-whisky-700ml-b-4f1f87",
 "format_note": "Similarity surprise, automated light form. Two shelf tickets, each bottle's band-position label (not the band numbers) and own-history percentile, and the pair's CE rank; no CE 360° band numbers, no cross-read CEARP, no Welch t-test (light form, and no dossier was read). Divergence axis is country (Scotland vs Ireland), not price tier — the two prices are near-equal ($81 vs $79, ratio 1.09), so price_tier_divergent is false. The agreeing item is The Glen Grant 10: its cohort axis (under its CE 360° floor) and its own-history axis (0th percentile) both read cheap. Bushmills 10's axes disagree (mid own-history, over its cohort ceiling), so it is not presented as the value anchor.",
 "claims": [
  {
   "item": "The Glen Grant 10 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL",
   "kind": "price",
   "value": 81
  },
  {
   "item": "Bushmills 10 Year Old Single Malt Irish Whiskey 700mL",
   "kind": "price",
   "value": 79
  }
 ],
 "subjects": [
  "The Glen Grant 10 Year Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL",
  "Bushmills 10 Year Old Single Malt Irish Whiskey 700mL"
 ],
 "verified_at": "2026-10-08T05:58:28.000Z",
 "verified_by": "etl/price_verify.py",
 "verified_prices": {
  "64400": 78.99,
  "758583": 80.99
 },
 "verification_note": "2 price claim(s) verified live",
 "quality_gate": "pass",
 "gated_at": "2026-10-08T05:58:28.000Z",
 "site_publish": true
}