Scotch at Dan Murphy's, priced every Thursday. Lagavulin 16 and the ten bottles that define it.
Dan Murphy's · week of 2026-11-05
vintage 2026-11-05.1
operator tier
nightly build · origin/main@940a5be

From the Label 5 desk · Thread · Similarity surprise · 2026-09-24

Budget blend, blended malt: the engine calls them twins

mergedflaggedmay_publish falsequality passsite_publish trueprices: 2 price claim(s) verified live

1/A supermarket blend and one of Diageo's malt blends, rated near-identical by the choice engine. Label 5 Classic Black is the well-stocked grocery Scotch. Copper Dog is a Speyside blended malt, all malt and no grain. Fifth-closest pair on the whole shelf.

2/"Close" here is the model reading their flavour coordinates, not anyone tasting the two side by side. Both land light and soft: orchard fruit, a gentle sweetness. The Copper Dog carries a tropical, rum-cask lilt; the Label 5 shows more of its grain, corn and a little spice.

3/Timing is the interesting part. The Copper Dog is the clear buy right now, under its cohort's floor and at the bottom of its own recent range at the same time. $57 on a My Dan Murphy's member price, $65 on the shelf. Two separate reads calling it cheap, which beats one.

4/Label 5 is the split verdict. It's at its own recent low too, $63 on member and $72 for the full litre, but its two reads don't line up the way the Copper Dog's do. Same corner of the engine, one clean value. Which would you reach for: the litre of blend, or the malt?

Sources

  • generate_cycle.py replay payload, artefact 2026-09-24-replay/similarity-surprise/label-5-classic-black-blended-scotch-whisky-1l-copper-dog-bl-5390be; window as-of 2026-09-24, vintage 2026-09-24.r.
  • Label 5 Classic Black Blended Scotch Whisky 1L: list ticket $72 (claim value 72.0; grounding.ref.price 72.0), member price $63 (position price $63.00, member_offer true; grounding.ref.price_in_window 63.0). Band position "over ceiling", own-history direction cheap, own-history percentile 0.0, axes agree false (grounding.ref).
  • Copper Dog Blended Malt Scotch Whisky 700mL: list ticket $65 (claim value 65.0; grounding.cand.price 65.0), member price $57 (position price $57.00, member_offer true; grounding.cand.price_in_window 57.0). Band position "under floor", own-history direction cheap, own-history percentile 0.0, axes agree true (grounding.cand).
  • Engine: CE rank 5, CE score 0.006143; VSM rank 10, VSM score 0.93; same country (Scotland), diverges on style (grounding, candidate.pair). Sizes: Label 5 1L, Copper Dog 700mL.
  • Character (factor profiles, 2026-09-24.r dossiers, both 0 matched reviews): Copper Dog Orchard & Cereal 0.12 (light, soft, floral, orchard, gentle) + Tropical & Rum Cask 0.02 (tropical, mango, coconut); Label 5 Orchard & Cereal 0.08 (light, soft, floral, orchard, gentle) + Corn & Charcoal 0.07 (corn, sweetness, sweet, spice).

Omissions

  • Light form: no CE 360° band numbers, no cross-read CEARP, no Welch t-test — only the band-position labels and own-history percentiles are used, not the underlying numbers.
  • Member basis: the "cheap right now" signal is read on the member price for both bottles, not the list; both bases are given in the post.
  • Size difference stated: Label 5 is a litre, Copper Dog a 700mL, so the two tickets are not a like-for-like per-bottle comparison.
  • No advice to join for the offer — the two bases are given and the choice is left to the reader.

Notes for reviewer

  • Flagged — milder surprise than the format's exemplar. The divergence is category and positioning (a grocery blended Scotch against a Diageo blended malt), not country or flavour: both read light and orchard-led, which is why the engine pairs them. It clears the rule (CE rank 5, style divergence, Copper Dog's two axes both call it cheap), but it is a closer call than a country-and-style pairing, so it is flagged rather than run as standard.
  • Only Copper Dog carries the two-measure agreement. Label 5's own-history read (at its recent low) and its cohort read ("over ceiling") disagree. That cohort read rests on a model-vs-shelf price gap — its CE 360° band sits near $49 while the live ticket is $63 member / $72 list — so the draft does not present Label 5 as "dear", only that its two reads do not line up. Do not over-read Label 5's cohort signal.
  • Catalogue error to fix upstream: the payload records Copper Dog's style as "Single Malt". Copper Dog is a blended malt (Diageo, Speyside). The draft calls it a blended malt and does not repeat the "Single Malt" label.
  • Both legs are member offers; confirm the member/list bases read cleanly and the piece does not tip into "join to get this".
  • Replay draft on rehearsal vintage 2026-09-24.r; may_publish: false and never flips in replay.

Format note

Similarity surprise, light form. Two live tickets, each item's band-position label and own-history percentile, and the pair's CE rank. No CE 360° band numbers, no cross-read CEARP, no Welch t-test. Both bottles are on a My Dan Murphy's member offer this week; the band-position and own-history signals are read on the member price, so the basis is member-to-member and stated. The payload records Copper Dog's style as 'Single Malt'; it is a blended malt (Diageo, Speyside), and the draft describes it correctly (see Notes). Only Copper Dog shows both of its axes agreeing; Label 5's do not, and its cohort read rests on a model-vs-shelf price gap, so the draft does not present Label 5 as dear (see Notes).

Frontmatter as merged
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